Agriculture and Irrigation - Request for Proposal - Agriculture Outlook Report

Project Background: Driven by an ever-increasing global demand for food and bio-products, Alberta’s agriculture industry is thriving. Food manufacturing is Alberta’s second-largest manufacturing industry behind oil and gas with $24.3 billion of total sales in 2023. Value-added products made up 54.1 per cent of that total, highlighting a growing interest in processing more of what we grow. This trend is also reflected in increasing investment in new or expanded processing facilities. In 2023-24, Agriculture and Irrigation confirmed a record $3.05 billion in investment in the value-added processing, leading to the creation of 1,323 jobs. Alberta’s total agricultural exports are also soaring, hitting a record-breaking $17.8 billion in 2023. This is the fourth year in a row total agricultural exports have hit a new high. Value-added exports increased 8.9 per cent in 2023 to $9.6 billion, and primary exports rose 12.5 per cent to $8.2 billion. To keep the momentum going, Agriculture and Irrigation is developing a Value-added Agriculture Investment and Growth Strategy. The Value-added Agriculture Investment and Growth Strategy is a multi-year plan to grow investments and exports. Actions identified will be implemented over several years. The strategy will set targets and identify actions to create jobs and strengthen Alberta’s economy through the growth and diversification of the province’s value-added agriculture sector. The Agriculture Outlook Report is a foundational piece of this strategy.    Project Objectives: The Agriculture Outlook will help inform long-term planning out to 2040 for the future growth of Alberta’s agriculture industry, with specific emphasis on attracting investment in the value-added sector. It will identify the trends and opportunities that will offer the greatest economic and job creation benefits for Albertans. It will also advise on the future sustainability and growth potential of Alberta traditional value-added strengths. From nutraceuticals to bio-fuels, there are many emerging subsectors in the value-added the agriculture industry. However novel and exciting they might be, not all of these trends will have staying power and many of them will be a match for Alberta’s competitive advantages. Our growing conditions, proximity to specific markets, expertise and experience and the costs and availability of resources like water and energy will determine which new opportunities worth cultivating here. The Agriculture Outlook will assess the opportunities and offer insights into why Alberta should cultivate them or not. The Outlook will also consider the futures of Alberta’s more traditional value-added sub-sectors like meat and grain and oil seed processing. These sub-sectors are evolving with new challenges and opportunities arising. It is important to understand what part of these mature industries are likely to play in Alberta’s future, how their strengths can be leveraged and what, if any, work could be done to needed support their continued success. The Government of Alberta wants to know which emerging and mature sectors and subsectors are likely to thrive in Alberta, which are likely to fail and where the industry and government can focus their energy and resources to achieve the greatest economic returns. It is important that this work is completed by an unbiased third-party that can offer a wholistic and long-range view of the value-added agriculture sector globally and in Alberta. For deliverables, this RFP required two final products. The first is the long form report (approximately 50 pages) that will include all the elements written below and the second will be a compressed version written in a publication style that would make it amiable to public consumption (i.e. may either posted to our Alberta.ca website or to be shared with affected industry partners). The compressed version is to be no more than 5 pages.  The long-form report is to include but not be limited to the following elements: • An overview of the value-added agriculture industry within Canada • A comprehensive overview of the value-added agriculture industry within Alberta covering contribution to the Alberta economy, transforming an agricultural input, creating an agriculture product, longevity in Alberta, growth potential, risk, etc. using the following key indicators: o Market demand and trends (consumer preferences and global market trends); o Economic factors (sector performance, economic conditions); o Government policies and support (programs, regulations etc); o Technological advances (innovations, sustainability practices etc); and o Challenges and risks (climate change, geopolitics and market volatility) • Using suitable economic indicators, an analysis of current status (current sector distribution and their successes) in connection to historical factors over last 15 years supported with data tables. Indicators may include but not be limited to: o Gross domestic product (GDP); o Output, including food manufacturing sales; o Commodity prices; o Employment; o Investment inflows; o Angel and venture capital investment into value-added sector; o Trade balances; and o Government subsidies • An analysis of where the gaps are in Alberta’s value-added agriculture industry compared to the future demand for products, and what could be done to address those gaps. • An analysis of global demands (current and future) for value-added agriculture products, along with these future trends align with Alberta strengths and growth targets. Including, recommendations on which subsectors have the highest potential for economic growth that Alberta. o This can be organized in the below or alternative method pending approval of the department.  Foundational: those that form the basis of Alberta’s value-added agriculture industry (e.g. meat product manufacturing, cereal and oilseed processing).  Emerging: those that are becoming more established and have potential for growth (e.g. snack foods, personal care products); and  Speculative: those new, novel and high-risk subsectors Alberta could play a role in. • The following sectors are in scope: o Food manufacturing NAIC 311: Animal food manufacturing, grain and oilseed milling, sugar and confectionary products manufacturing, fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing, dairy products manufacturing, meat products manufacturing, bakery and tortilla manufacturing and other food manufacturing.   o Fresh fruit and vegetable merchant wholesalers (NAIC 41315): Supply retailers primarily engaged in cleaning, sorting, repacking and wholesaling fresh fruit and vegetables. o Beverage manufacturing (NAIC 3121): Soft drink and ice manufacturing, breweries, wineries, distillers.   o Meat Processing and animal food manufacturing (NAIC 3111): manufacturing food and feed for animals, including pets.  o Controlled environment agriculture (1114): Controlled environment agriculture (CEA), vertical farms and aquaponics.  o Alternative Proteins: Plant-based, fungus, algae, insects and cellular agriculture.   o BioEnergy: biofuels and renewable natural gas. o BioProducts: fiber processing, biocomposites, bioplastics, textiles (313), ag-based regenerative fertilizer. o Natural Health Products: cosmetics and personal care ag-based ingredients. • The following areas are out of scope: agriculture technology, franchises and restaurants, farming equipment, cold chain logistics, warehouses, fertilizers that are not made from an agricultural input, equipment and systems used in controlled environment agriculture, software and drones. The information in this outlook will allow Agriculture and Irrigation to focus its strategies and resources on sectors and subsectors with the highest growth potential and connection to Alberta therefore likely to generate the greatest economic benefits for Albertans. Project Structure: The third-party contractor will conduct extensive research globally regarding sectors and subsectors of the value-added agriculture industry. Utilizing the research, the contractor will then analyze, theme and design the report. The report is to be designed for public release with plain language, in depth evidence, infographics and imagery. The layout of the report can be organized thematically, chronologically, or an alternative method. The department is open learning what presentation style the contractor finds to be the most conducive to the representation of data and information. It it crucial for the information to be presented with both qualitative and quantitative supporting data. The contractor will assemble the reporting structure within their own organization and have one or two main points of contact to report to and work with members of the Export and Investment Branch of the Trade, Investment and Food Safety Division. The Branch/Division lead will provide review and feedback on the report when in final draft proof form.